There is no Ouija board to give the right
answer, but logical interpretation of the facts suggests that Osama bin
Laden
died in late 2001. Pakistan's leader, General
Pervez Musharraf, suggested publicly in two interviews in January 2002
that bin Laden was killed either directly
or indirectly by the bombing of Tora Bora, Afghanistan, the month before.
Musharraf, a Bush ally, made some of his
comments on CNN. The FBI speculated openly around the same time
that bin Laden was dead. So did the Pentagon.
According to "The News," Islamabad's main
newspaper, "Fed up by the questioning [about bin Laden], the U.S. military
authorities announced finally that they
would stop chasing shadows and instead focus on other aspects of the so-called
war on terrorism." ("Musharraf Advised
to be Less Forthcoming While Commenting on bin Laden," Jan. 20, 2002).
As reported in numerous newspapers here
and abroad, fighting was heavy in Tora Bora in December 2001, with more
American and British soldiers, than earlier
in the military campaign, shipped out through the airport in Jacobabad,
Pakistan.
An intense two-week bombardment of caves
and tunnels around Tora Bora officially ceased and, on December 16, 2001,
the military declared victory over bin
Laden's guerrillas. The administration decided to send a team of experts
to
Afghanistan to confirm bin Laden's death.
General Tommy Franks, head of the U.S. Central
Command, was reported to have told the same Pakistani newspaper that
bin Laden was in Tora Bora. Foreign newspapers
have reported since April 2000 that bin Laden was suffering from kidney
failure. Presumably, bin Laden's weakness
was one excuse for Pakistan's continuing support of the Taliban.
Lt. Gen. Mahmoud Ahmed, chief of Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (secret service), visited the Clinton administration
in April 2000 and then visited the Bush
administration the first week of September 2001, although the visits were
not widely
reported in the United States.
Musharraf and others have said publicly that bin Laden's kidney ailment
required dialysis.
News reports of bin Laden's illness were
corroborated by his appearance in his last videotape, in fall 2001.
Pale and gaunt, with a stiffened left side,
he looked like a man with heart problems from approaching renal shutdown.
He has not been seen since 2001.
Purported audiotapes have been of poor quality and doubted by experts.
Assertions that bin Laden is in hiding
have been vague, confused and contradictory.
Musharraf now hints that bin Laden must
be on the run in the rubble of Afghanistan. The Afghanis have accused
Pakistan of concealing him, despite his
height (6'4"), his distinctive appearance and his wealth.
The recently captured 9-11 "mastermind,"
Khalid Sheik Mohammed, apparently first said that bin Laden is dead
- and then that he is alive.
After Musharraf's interview, newspapers
around the world reported that Musharraf was asked to tone down his
comments by U.S. officials. The bin Laden
videotape, which had been held by authorities for a month, was released
about the same time.
There is, basically, no administration story
on bin Laden. There has been no consistent official line on his position
for
a year and a half. The White House's lack
of concern over bin Laden's whereabouts was preceded first by promises
to get him, and then by indifferent "dead
or alive" slogans, hinting that he needn't be captured for interrogation.
From the point of view of intelligence,
it is heartbreaking that the White House apparently did not simply pressure
the
Taliban into giving up bin Laden. With
U.S. power and global sympathy on their side, they readily could have done
so,
probably within a month of 9/11, and could
have learned a lot.
But dead men tell no tales.
Instead, they bombed a country, ostensibly
to get one man. One casualty in the process was Wall Street Journal reporter
Daniel Pearl, whose abduction and killing
in Pakistan this past January probably was retaliation for bin Laden's
death,
and for the continuing assault afterward.
Meanwhile, the Federal Aviation Administration's
online Civil Aviation Registry lists at least 15 bin Ladens who got
pilots licenses or other flight certification
in the United States.
One would think some of them might have
had useful information, but in fall 2001, according to London's "The Independent,"
the White House quietly assisted remaining
members of the bin Laden family to fly out of the country ("Fears of Reprisal
Force bin Laden Family To Flee Their Homes
in U.S.", Sept. 26, 2001.)
Margie Burns, a teacher and writer who lives in Cheverly, can be reached at: margie.burns@verizon.net.