Stampeding the Herd
                           by Gene Lyons
                      Writing in the Washington Monthly, Nicholas Confessore asks an
                      interesting question: are Democrats being penny-wise and pound-foolish not
                      to "nationalize" the upcoming mid-term elections? "The GOP already controls
                      the White House, the Supreme Court, and the House of Representatives,"
                      Confessore writes. The Democrats control the Senate, but by only one vote.
                      Polls of the handful of competitive Senate races indicate that control of
                      the chamber is a toss-up."

                      Should the Republicans run the table come November, holding the House
                      and winning back the Senate, it would give them control of the entire U.S.
                      government for the first time since 1929. (Although the GOP briefly
                      controlled Congress under Eisenhower, Democratic appointees dominated
                      the Supreme Court. Also, before Nixon's "Southern Strategy" remade the
                      party, the phrase "liberal Republican" wasn't yet an oxymoron.) And we all
                      know what happened in 1929, don't we?

                      Given the ruthless opportunism of the Bush administration and the
                      radical right-wing ideology of today's Republican party, he argues, the
                      potential exists to inflict the entire GOP agenda upon a largely unwilling country.

                      You name it, and President Junior could get it done: withdraw the U.S.
                      from all international arms control and environmental treaties, grant
                      "regulatory relief" to pollu-ters, "tort reform" to corporations whose
                      products kill people, render workplace safety rules inoperable, drill for
                      oil in national wildlife refuges, harvest timber in national forest wilderness
                      areas, "privatize" Social Security with sharp benefit cuts, bankrupt Medicare
                      through permanent tax cuts for the rich, exchange federal education aid for
                      private school "vouchers," stuff the federal courts full of right-wing apparatchiks,
                      reverse Roe v Wade, tell the United Nations to pound sand, and wage
                      "pre-emptive" war against the entire Islamic world.

                      Sounds alarmist, I know. And yes, there's another election scheduled in
                      2004. But combine the GOP platform with the relentlessly partisan first
                      months of the Bush administration--i.e. before Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords
                      quit the Republicans in protest--and it's not so far-fetched.

                      "This vision would rightly alarm any right-thinking Democrat--and the
                      great majority of independent voters, as well," Confessore writes.
                      "It's a threat that is real, that won't go away, and that plays in every swing
                      district in America. But not a single Democrat has bothered to explain
                      the dangers of GOP one-party rule on the campaign trail, in a major speech,
                      or in Congress itself. Why?"

                      Confessore's answer is that Democratic candidates have allowed
                      themselves to be muzzled by political consultants. The received wisdom
                      is that "national" campaigns don't work in mid-term elections. Despite
                      polls showing that strong majorities oppose almost every item on the above
                      list of horrors, Americans tend not to vote for parties, but for individuals.
                      Also, like Tim Hutchinson, GOP candidates masquerade as defenders of Social
                      Security and Medicare during campaigns. Republicans know they can't
                      kill these programs outright; they mean to starve them to death.

                      Voters consistently say they favor "divided" government, with neither
                      party controlling Congress and theWhite House. Political scientists insist,
                      however, that hardly anybody actually votes on that basis. "Having a check
                      on Bush is a bank shot," says Democratic consultant Peter Brodnitz.
                      "It doesn't have direct application to people's concerns.."

                      Confessore isn't persuaded. He thinksDemocrats are being short-sighted
                      and too intimidated by Bush's supposed popularity. "If just the top Democrats
                      in town," he argues "Tom Daschle, Dick Gephardt, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry,
                      Terry McAuliffe, and the rest--spent a week talking about what would happen
                      if the Republicans take control, buzz alone would create national exposure."

                      But would it? None of those could do much for Mark Pryor, I fear.
                      Daschle's doing what he can to re-elect fellow South Dakota Democratic
                      Sen. Tim Johnson. Otherwise, the argument's too abstract to influence most
                      voters. Warning against GOP hegemony might help, say, Frank Lautenberg
                      in New Jersey--basically a Democratic state. So let him make the argument
                      along with whatever surrogates he invites to campaign for him.

                      Once again, the Republicans stole a lot when they stole the presidency.
                      History has shown that only the White House has any chance whatsoever of
                      "nationalizing" a mid-term election. As Al Gore pointed out two weeks ago,
                      President Junior's attempting to do exactly that by stampeding the country
                      toward war with Iraq.

                      It may be backfiring. Despite the ritual abuse of Gore by right-wing
                      pundits the Democrat-Gazette ran a lengthy editorial and several columns
                      without a single quote or halfway accurate paraphrase of what he actually
                      said polls show deepening unease at the suspect timing and transparent
                      manipulativeness of Bush's quest. It's doubtful even Junior believes that
                      Iraq's about to launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. Pretending made him
                      sound shrill and defensive Monday night.

                      The last time the GOP tried to stampede the electorate was the Clinton
                      impeachment in 1998. That failed badly, and something like it may be
                      shaping up again.

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