LONDON

Western Europe was unified for two generations by a fear of the Soviet Union. Now that
Russia's economy is dependent on high oil prices, its population plunging to half that of the U.S.,
and what's left of the Red Army mired in Chechnya, the glue holding together Europe's fragile
supranational identity is resentment of the unrivaled power of the United States.

Americans should not be offended at being the object of the unifying force of envy. As
George W. (Don't Call Me Unilateralist) Bush does the New Grand Tour (Spain,
Sweden, Poland and Slovenia rather than France, Germany and Britain), he supplies our
allies with a necessary psychological substitute for their former fear.

Accordingly, ex-Trotskyites in France consider us barbarians for imposing the death
penalty on a mass murderer, though more prisoners in French jails committed suicide in
the past year than were executed in the U.S. And European greens recite their mantra
that the U.S., with only 5 percent of the world's population, produces 25 percent of the
pollutants — though this is hardly surprising from the nation that produces 25 percent of
the world's goods and services.

A pair of defense issues provide Europeans with a satisfying irritation with the U.S. One
is their desire for a non-American "Rapid Deployment Force," even as European nations
reduce their spending on defense. We see this as a bureaucratic device for them to use
NATO assets without American participation in military decisions.

The other irritant is our desire to be able to defend ourselves against dozens of missiles
coming into the hands of rogue nations. Though such basic defense would not affect the
strategic balance between Russia and the U.S. (both nations have thousands of missiles
to overwhelm any limited defense), Europeans have bought Vladimir Putin's line that any
change in the cold-war deal might "lead to a new arms race."

After all the posturing is over, here's the deal that may well be struck:

Americans strongly doubt that Europe will put up the money to pay for an independent
force; such talk of a force independent of NATO will never amount to more than talk.
Therefore, we'll withdraw our objection and smilingly wish them well — provided they
don't use NATO equipment or endanger U.S. troops.

For their part, many Europeans have fervently bought the notion that we're nowhere near
developing a system that will shoot down incoming missiles, or that we will find it too
expensive. Therefore, they will withdraw their objection to our withdrawal from the old
ABM treaty and will patronizingly wish America well — provided we promise to placate
Putin and, on the off chance that we ever achieve what now seems technologically
impossible, to use our missile shield to protect them.

Thus, with Europeans and Americans both saying "Sure, go ahead, it'll never get off the
ground," we will strike a grand strategic bargain. It took shape at NATO in Brussels
yesterday as some of our allies showed an interest in defending their own cities from
nuclear blackmail.

Because European expectations have been so contemptuously low, and because Bush
has done serious homework, the new American president is likely to get a
first-impression "bounce." That should serve him well in Saturday's non-summit in
Slovenia with Putin. But Bush's performance will ultimately be rated not on his ability to
project humility in meetings or plunge into affectionate crowds in Warsaw.

Will he politely tell Putin that the ABM restrictions are a dead letter, and that we will pay
no price in economic aid for his assent? Will he make clear that the U.S. never
recognized the deal the Soviets made with the Nazis to swallow up the Baltic nations, and
that Russia has no say in when Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia become members of
NATO? Will he say that U.S. relations with Russia will reflect Putin's policy toward sales
of technology into dangerous hands, toward brutality in Chechnya, toward his
suppression of the press?

Such unilateral honesty might bestir the resentment that unites many Europeans. But we
can dispense with the blather about "personal chemistry" and the supposed value of
"looking him in the eye." Only if Bush plainly asserts our national interests will his first
foray to Europe be judged a success.