The warnings for
Democrats in national polling data remain bleak and unmistakable,
from a demoralized progressive base to a revitalized hardcore right,
independents veering Republican. With employment trending poorly and no
stimulus in sight, the current question is not whether the Democratic
Party will be
beaten in the midterm but just how badly.
start to dream again of Karl Rove's hundred years of GOP domination,
however, they might consult the latest working paper by political
demographer Ruy Teixeira,
who predicted the return of the Democrats back when things looked worst
for his party during
the early Bush era. According to Teixeira, a senior fellow at the
Center for American Progress,
every long-term trend in population, occupation and education still
portends a Democratic
America in the 21st century.
By now many
Americans are aware that the United States is becoming
within the next few decades, a change that Teixeira predicts will occur
by 2042. Between now
and then, the strongly Democratic orientation of minority voters --
Latinos and Asian-Americans -- will continue to shape electoral results
in most states.
At the same time, the share of conservative white working-class voters,
who tend to
vote Republican, is declining...