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Football Picks by Mike the Dealer
Perception Vs Reality
The perception in sports betting is that
bookies put up a line to get even action on a game and just hope to collect
10% on the vig, the 11-to-10 odds required of
all wagers in sportsbooks. This is a lie, bookies will often be very
heavy
on one side and accept it, if they like their
line, they won’t move it at all. When the Steelers visited the Bears, the
overwhelming money went on Pittsburgh but the
line held at -3 all week, and then the Bears won on the field.
The bookies have their power rankings, their
formulas for tracking what teams are supposed to beat other teams
and so on, and if the public is going against
what they expect, they’ll let the suckers pour their money in and get broke.
Of course there are times when the bookies get
burned, the Giants/Patriots Super Bowl had the Giants getting 4 or
5 to 1
on your money if you bet them to win outright.
Crazy Giants fans flooded the books and spent all their money on this and
when it happened, Vegas got cleaned out.
Various sports betting sites on-line will list for you where the money
is going
on games, if you see a game that’s got 90% of
the betting on one side and the line isn’t moving, rest assured the bookies
think they got the public right where they want
them. If the line moves, then they aren’t so sure.
If it wasn’t for that…
A great many broadcasters have said over the last
week “If it wasn’t for one freak play against Denver, the Bengals
would be 3-0” and that’s true, but those plays
count just as much as any other play. Football is truly a chaotic sport.
In basketball and hockey, offense and defense
are fluid, in baseball, offense and defense are fixed, in football, the
offense
and defense are fixed, but the difference is
the defense can score. If your team is batting, you can’t get scored on,
you
don’t have any fears of the other team gaining
points. In football, every pass is an interception run back for a touchdown
waiting to happen, every run is a fumble. In
a game where every play can lead to either team scoring 6 points (With
a nearly
assured 7th forthcoming, or 8th if they go for
two)
Heck, even when the offense and defense aren’t
on the field touchdowns are scored. The 2001 AFC Title game featured
the overwhelming favorite Steelers battling a
underdog Patriots team that was there ‘only because of a bad call’ (The
infamous
‘Tuck Rule’) and if you went by just what the
offenses and defenses did, Pittsburgh would have won 17-10. Alas for the
Steelers
that’s not how football works, as their horrible
special teams let Troy Brown rip off a punt return for a touchdown, and
then later
in the game had a Field Goal blocked and run
back (Part way by Troy Brown, who lateraled the ball to Antwan Harris who
scampered the rest of the way untouched for the
backbreaking touchdown.
If your team is up or down 7 or less, anything
can happen at any moment (Except when one team is in the ‘victory formation
and just taking kneel downs.) and that’s why
this game is so hard to win, cause you can have a team beat the whole day,
and then on one play, you lose.
The picks.
Humoring the Grand Poobah will not help you: 4 people took the Panthers in ‘solidarity’ with Bartcop, and then lost.
The Grand Poobah knows not to hold a grudge when
betting: Only one reader joined Bartcop in taking the Cowboys,
and they were showered with victory.
This Betting Stuff is Easy: 5 people took
the Packers and all cruised to victory, nobody bet the useless Rams.
8 people took the Lions to only 2 who backed
the ‘Skins.
The Public is All Morons: 3 people took the Steelers, and all went down in flames, nobody backed the Bengals.
We had no idea on that one: Cards/Colts
Falcons/Patriots Chargers/Dolphins Eagles/Chiefs
all got no action from everyone in the contest.
I didn't see those games listed - I would've taken
the Cards.
Maybe I ldropped the ball :)
Records after week 1
The 4 and 1 Hall of Honor
Mike The Dealer (I mail my picks to Bart on Friday,
I’m not fibbing!)
Wins: Saints, 49’ers, Ravens, Lions
Loss: Texans
Mike D
Wins: Lions, Broncos, Saints, Jags
Loss: Panthers
Tex
Wins: Packers, Saints, Giants, Lions
Loss: Titans
Nic G
Wins: Jets, Broncos, Ravens, Lions
Loss: Seahawks
Big Orange Jeff
Wins: Packers, 49’ers, Bears, Lions
Loss: Titans
The 3 and 2’s
James D, Paul W, Craig, The Hollywood Liberal
The 2 and 3’s
Bartcop, Peter Y, Mike R
If you didn’t see your name or thought you were incorrectly scored, shoot me an E-mail.
Week 2 additions
First off, to make things easy on me, list the spread with your picks, so I know how much your team is giving/getting.
Also this week, since last week had a lot of 4
and 1’s, make one pick your ‘lock’ of the week, if your lock wins,
you get 2 points, this way we can break ties
and be more likely to have a true weekly winner, If you don’t list a lock,
then you just aren’t playing with the bonus option,
so don’t handicap yourself and do it.
And now finally
WEEK 2 CONTEST LINES
BYES: Cardinals, Panthers, Falcons, Eagles
Home team in CAPS
FAVORITE LINE UNDERDOG
TEXANS
-9 ½ Raiders
Titans
-2 ½
JAGUARS
PATRIOTS
-1 ½
Ravens
Bengals
-5 ½
BROWNS
BEARS
-9 ½ Lions
REDSKINS
-6 ½ Bucs
SAINTS
-6 ½ Jets
DOLPHINS
-2 ½ Bills
49’ERS
-9 ½ Rams
Cowboys
-2 ½ BRONCOS
STEELERS
-6 ½ Chargers
VIKINGS
-3 ½ Packers
Good luck everyone, you have until kick off Sunday
to send your picks into Mikethedealer@hotmail.com
Send e-mail
to Bart | Discuss
it on The BartCop Forum | Comment
on it at the BartBlog