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Survivor
Heroes Vs Villains: Preview
by Mike the Dealer
Survivor opens its 20th season with an all-star
show with a gimmick, that being 10 people
who’ve been previously cast as ‘heroes’ battling
against 10 people who’ve been cast as ‘villains’.
Let’s review the cast, see how the tribes stack
up, assess the threats, and try to figure out who the winner could be.
I’ll list every player by name, season or seasons
they were on, what level of game play I believe they have
(Mostly social, but some physical) and how I
see them doing. In the end I’ll have a tribe breakdown and
do my ‘shot in the dark’ pick of the winner.
Villains
EVIL WOMEN
Courtney
Previous Season: China , made final 3 and lost
Threat Level: Yellow
Courtney pretty much had a solid alliance and
rode it to final 3 where she was unable to beat Todd for the money.
She has a good shot of doing well if the Villains
get off to a good start, as she hasn’t won and won’t be seen as a big time
schemer.
Danielle
Previous Season: Panama, lost final 2
Threat Level: Green
She has no real game, Cirie, crazy Shane, and
Aras ran things while Terry the unlikeable Tom rip off was busy
immunity tanking his way to the end. Odds are
she’ll last a while because she’ll be seen as harmless, which she was.
Jerri
Previous Seasons: Australia, made jury, All-Stars,
didn’t make jury
Threat Level: Yellow
Was pretty much screwed by Lex on All-Stars,
who made the stupid move of helping Boston Rob and voted off
an ally rather than ridding the game of Boston
Rob’s ally (and future wife) Amber. She’s been on the wrong side
of things outside her control. Doubt she’ll be
seen much as a threat in this season, so she could last.
Parvati
Previous seasons: Cook Islands made the jury,
Fans Vs favs, Winner
Threat Level: Red
Winners are threats, huge threats, she’ll be
targeted right quick, double so
given what I’ll be writing about later. I don’t
expect her to last long.
Sandra
Previous Season: Pearl Island, Winner
Threat Level: Red
She won, and she’s a woman, that tends to get
one the boot right quick on these shows, if the Villains lose
a couple challenges she and Parvati look to be
in real trouble. In all reality she only won her season because
the crazy girl scout lady gave her a million
bucks rather than take Johnny Fairplay to final 2 and beat his
stupid head in for the cash. If people accept
that her winning was pretty lame she might last, but normally
the stain of having a million dollars is too
much to overcome.
EVIL MEN
Coach
Previous Season: Tocantins, Made Jury
Threat level: Green
Coach is a gameless idiot, he really has no idea
what’s going on. He was infuriating with his stupidity,
he’ll most likely for a few votes, because he’s
not much for plotting or scheming, and isn’t a threat to
Immunity tank his way to victory.
Randy
Previous Season: Gabon, made jury
Threat level: Green
Another gameless idiot, Randy’s even less of
a physical threat then Coach, and this might be his only downfall,
in that he could be voted off ahead of a woman
because he’s so weak. Randy’s on this show for lord only knows
what reason, he could hang around if somebody
felt the need to use his vote, but otherwise he won’t last.
Boston Rob
Previous seasons: Marquesas, didn’t make jury,
All-Stars, lost final 2
Threat Level: A Color only bees can see
Rob has lucked out that his tribe is so physically
weak when compared to the heroes (More on that in a bit)
it may very well allow him to survive long enough
to start the scheming and plotting that allowed him to dominate all-stars.
He should be the first one voted out of his tribe
due to his way to powerful game, but he may be irreplaceable
given the weakness the villains face. Expect
him to be targeted quickly once the merger hits, as everyone will
be scared to death of his mind control powers.
Russell
Previous season: Samoa lost final 3
Threat level: Orange
His finding idols without clues was cool, but
his stupid actions early on cost his tribe the numbers going into
the merger and only a lucky break of a stupid,
self-imploding enemy tribe, plus a hidden immunity idol,
stopped him from going down to a pagonging. He’s
solid, and odds are he and Rob will be working hard
to manipulate the not-so-game having members
of the Villains. He’s a bit of a wild-card because most of
his season wasn’t aired when this season started
filming, so people might just know him as ‘the jerk who
burned a guy’s socks and dumped out everyone’s
water’ could have a chance to win if he doesn’t sabotage
his own tribe this time and then just plots and
schemes like a normal person.
Tyson
Previous season: Tocantins, made jury
Threat level: Blue
He was Coach’s flunkie, but got seen as a physical
threat and then booted, odds are he and Coach will ally
and then attach themselves to the winner women
or Boston Rob/Russell. Has a chance to do some damage
since odds are Coach will get tossed out before
he does, due to the fact that he’s not likely to be an immunity tank this
season.
Heroes
HEROIC WOMEN
Amanda
Previous seasons: China, lost final 3, Fans Vs
Favs, lost final 2
Threat level: Orange
She knows the game, never got voted out (but
did need a hidden idol to survive one vote) smart, clearly a danger.
Will be interesting to see how she plays this,
could be seen as a threat at meager due to her previous season alliance
with Parvati.
Candice
Previous season: Cook Island, made jury
Threat level: Green
Got blindsided when her alliance was betrayed
and then voted out in short order, Candice really didn’t do a
whole heck of a lot in her season, why she’s
back over Yul, Becky, or more Jonathan is beyond me.
Will most likely fly under the radar and make
the merger, unless the heroes suffer to many early defeats and cut her
lose.
Cirie
Previous seasons: Panama, made jury Fans Vs Favs,
made jury
Threat level: beyond the understanding of moral
kin
She is Cirie!! RUN!!!! She almost assuredly has
to be the first person voted out of her tribe, she’s way too good
a player to be allowed to last and she’s a middle
aged heavyset woman so really she’s not going to be a physical
power house they need to keep around, she’s way
to smart and good at this game. She’s gotten people to willingly
give up immunity, she set up a 3 way split vote
to turn her minority into enough votes to boot her target, she plays
to win and has no mercy, she’ll vote anyone out
and then make them feel bad that she had to do it, a stone cold killer,
she will have to be voted out right quick.
She is also my favorite player of all time, I’d love for her to have a
long run,
but I doubt she’ll last.
Steph
Previous seasons: Palau, made jury Guatemala,
lost final 2
Threat Level: Orange
She was able to survive the total destruction
of her tribe, the only tribe ever to lose every last immunity challenge.
She would have been capable of going further
that year had idiot Gregg not decided that she had to go RIGHT NOW
rather than vote out the immunityless Tom, who
promptly then won like, 50 immunities in a row. Came back and had the
numbers on her side, but then stupidly took a
physical threat with her to final 3 instead of a gimp, and in doing so
lost a
million dollars. Is likely in as perfect a spot
as one could hope for, as she’s physically capable enough to not be expendable
early, yet won’t be nearly a threat one we get
to the merger and the Hero Males Mega Immunity Tank War kicks off.
Sugar
Previous seasons: Gabon lost final 3
Threat level: Orange
She’s smarter then she lets on, knows the game,
played it almost perfectly, but then sabotaged herself at the end
out of some stupid desire for Survivor to be
more than a bunch of fame-whores playing a game show and trying to
win a million dollars. If she keeps the tales
of morality and right and wrong out of the game and plays to win she
could be a threat, also her sappy attitude could
endear her to Rupert, who is the king of such stupidity, and allow
the start of an alliance.
HEROIC MEN
Colby
Previous seasons: Australia lost final 2, All-Stars
didn’t make jury
Threat Level: Yellow
Didn’t have an amazing social game, immunity
tanked the hell out of Australia, but was blindsided by his tribe
in All-Stars. He threw away a million dollars
because of ‘his word’ so he fits right in with the Sugar/Rupert ‘idiots
with morals’ group. Will be interesting to see
how it all shakes out with immunity challenges once we hit the merger,
which I’ll expect he will make.
James
Previous seasons: China, Made jury, Fans Vs Favs,
made jury
Threat Level: Yellow
Got blindsided while holding 2 hidden idols,
then got forced out due to an infected cut on “Survivor: Fans Vs Favorites”
or as I call it “the most unclean and horrible
show ever” so many people went down with infected wounds that season,
at least three of them. He was on the wrong side
of the numbers anyhow in Fans Vs Favs and was a goner anyhow.
Never much of a social gamer, will be interesting
to see how he does if he makes the merger and the Immunity War breaks out.
JT
Previous season: Tocantins, Winner
Threat Level: Red
He won he’s a physical threat and young, if the
Heroes decide to cut out some of their surplus power early he could go.
Played a solid social game and knew what he needed
to say to sway the jury. May fit in with the moral crusaders.
Rupert
Previous seasons: Pearl Islands, made jury, All-Stars,
made jury.
Was given a million dollars because CBS just
wanted him to have it.
Threat level: Blue
He’s pretty much an idiot, I hate Rupert the
cast of Pearl Island said he was a dick who got edited to look like a hero.
I have no use for Rupert and his stupidity at
all. Odds are he won’t be a physical threat as the rest of the Hero men
are,
and he lacks a good social game, but odds are
some ‘alliance of the self righteous’ will form with Tom, Colby, Rupert,
Sugar, and JT, and that will suck, a lot. I expect
him to last far too long for my liking, as he’ll work hard around camp
pre-merger, and post merger he won’t be a huge
immunity threat.
Tom
Previous season: Palau, Winner
Threat level: Red
He won, he was unbeatable in immunity challenges,
and the one time he lost, the idiots didn’t vote him out.
Played a great social game and a great physical
game, but he’s up against a cast of really strong physical players
this year, so it will be interesting if he can
still compete for necklaces. Also being a winner makes it possible he’ll
be sent on his way should the heroes go that
way.
TRIBE BREAKDOWN
The Villain women are a bit stronger then the
Hero women, with Cirie most likely being a bit of a physical liability,
but most challenges require a puzzle solver or
some form of intelligence and she can cover for that. The Hero men
have a clear edge physically over the Villain
men. Randy’s 50 and wasn’t exactly in good shape last time, Coach
was a disgrace, Russell needed a bunch of chances
to finally end Brett’s string of immunity wins. In the end
Boston Rob and Tyson are going to have to carry
a heavy load for the Villains when it comes to physical tasks.
This leads me to believe that Sandra, Randy, and
Parvati will be early vote outs, due to their having won before/not
being physically useful. The heroes on the other
hand will most likely be able to make votes looking towards the merger.
JT and Tom could be voted out for winning before
without much concern for losing one powerhouse, when they still
have plenty of strong men left. Cirie will have
to be voted out for the fact that she’s too good at Survivor to be left
in
the game, and that she’s not to physically helpful.
The winners out of all of this are really Boston
Rob, Russell, Steph, and Sugar, who have solid social games,
but will most likely be spared to the merger
due to what their tribe cares about. The Villains need Boston Rob
and Russell’s strength, while the Heroes will
most likely be just caring about who’s more awesome and honorable
and also concerned about ‘fairness’ (so long
as that fairness suits the needs of the person who’s talking about it.)
MY TOTALLY WRONG PREDICTIONS
The Heroes jump out of the gate quick, knocking
out Sandra, Randy, and Parvati. When they lose their first challenge
Cirie is sent packing. They then blindside JT
because he’s the youngest and has won already, and is also the least preachy
of Colby/Tom/Rupert/Sugar. After another loss,
Russell and Boston Rob agree to work together while completely
distrusting each other, but they still manage
to hold it together long enough to turf Courtney and Coach. The Heroes
purity crusade kicks out Amanda and Candice.
Right before the merger, Russell finally snakes Boston Rob,
who’s the known plotter and schemer, where as
Russell is just seen as a jerk.
MERGED TRIBE
Steph, Sugar, Colby, Rupert, Tom, James, Tyson,
Russell, Danielle, Jerri
The Heroes go into the merger with a 6-4 edge
and pick off Tyson, they then get hit by a Russell hidden idol
and lose Tom. Russell goes next, and then Colby
gets backstabbed after he loses immunity and everyone fears
he’s a threat. At final 6 Sugar/Rupert/James/Steph
hold together and throw out Danielle. Jerri complains to
Sugar and Steph that they are just giving the
game to the hero men if they vote her out, Steph agrees and
Sugar wakes up and decides to play to win instead
of for ‘a good person to win’…Rupert goes at 4, but James
wins the final immunity, and the heroes decide
the final villain should be tossed, bye Jerri.
Final 3, Steph claims she played the best game, Sugar claims the same thing, James says he won some challenges.
James wins the mill, because the jury is idiots.
So tune in Thursday to see James voted out first…Kiss of death baby!
Comments or questions, send them to mikethedealer@hotmail.com
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